ABDF

Sunday, May 18, 2008

Hi everybody!

I’m happy to report that the couple living down the road from me now has a lovely little well that brings forth CLEAN water.  I was quite pleased; once the date and time were set for the digging, everything went off without a hitch.  Selwenthiran and his wife, Janthy (the lady with the mental problems) were extremely happy.  Although their English is limited to “Good, good,” their smiles communicated volumes.

I want to thank those of you who have offered to pay for the well; Lara, Julie, Katie and Princess Bit. Give yourselves a pat on the back and be happy knowing that you really made a huge difference for these people.  I mean a HUGE difference. You guys rock!

Everything is still humming long so far, at least in terms of projects.  I’ve had some problems with buying my motorbike.  The problems are entirely political, and stem from that election last weekend.  I’ll explain.

The two big pro-government candidates in the District were Piliyan, the head of the TMVP, and Hizbullah, who switched sides from the opposition Muslim party to a small one allied with the government.  Hizbullah’s main support is Kattankudy, being that he is a native son of that town.  The effect of his defection to the government has been to split the Muslim community in two, politically speaking.  Why did he switch sides?

The government wanted to do everything in its power to keep political control over Eastern Province.  Although it had the TMVP on its side, the government also knew that the main national opposition party was and is very popular on the east coast.  The TMVP isn’t popular among the everyday east coast Tamil, for an assortment of reasons. Thus there was no absolute guarantee the TMVP would win a majority, especially as the Muslim vote would undoubtedly go to the opposition. To ensure this wouldn’t happen, the President made an offer that Hizbullah couldn’t refuse; if he swung enough Muslim votes to the government, Hizbullah would become Provincial Chief Minister.  Of course the President made a similar pledge to Piliyan of the TMVP.

Election day came and went, and Hizbullah succeeded in getting enough Muslim votes to assure a pro-government victory.  So he assumed that he would be given the Chief Ministership.

The rumor (and this is just a rumor) is that Piliyan was mighty upset; even with the full force of the TMVP militia, and with government support of various kinds, he ended winning a majority, but not hardly the landslide he had assumed he’d be getting.  No matter how the ballots were handled, it was hard to deny that a great many Tamils had voted for the opposition.

Overall, the government won 20 seats to the oppositions’ 15.  This was last weekend.

But now the President had to make a choice; there could only be one Chief Minister.  The various small Muslim parties under the direction of Hizbullah delivered more votes than did the TMVP especially in Kattankudy , but of all government parties side-by-side, the TMVP won more votes than any single other party.  So each candidate had a legitimate claim to the Ministership, depending on how you interpret the verbal agreements made.

For the past week, both men and their supporters have been in Colombo meeting with the President, trying to present their respective cases.  In the meantime here in Batti District, things have been getting very tense in a four-way split; among the Muslims there is now a split between the traditional Muslim opposition parties and the pro-government ones, and a similar split among the Tamils between the TMVP (which has the guns) and the opposition UNP party, which does not.  And these two blocks, Muslim and Tamil are also hostile to each other.  So now instead of a simple Muslim/Tamil division, things have become much more Balkanized, if you know what I mean. And of these four groups, none know who among the other three is the bigger enemy or ally.

As I say, it’s become rather tense, and during the week there were a couple of violent incidents, including a shooting.  But in general there has been peace while everyone waits to get news from Colombo.

All sides have been using fear to get their own supporters amped for… whatever may happen.  Vihas, the boy who has become so attached to me came upstairs one evening and in all seriousness told me that “If the Muslims win, they will attack us.”  I was taken aback; if any family in the neighborhood has more Muslim friends than this one, I’d be very surprised.

“Do you believe this?”  I asked him.  He nodded.

“Who is telling you these things?”  He just half-smiled and said nothing time.

“Oh come on,” I said to him, “you don’t really believe that, do you?  You are good friends with Aneesha and Firthous and have known them all your life.  You play with Farrah (their daughter) all the time. Do you think they’re gonna come here and attack you?  I mean, really…”  Vihas got a grin on his face, and then started to giggle at the thought.

“No…” he said.

“Good boy.” I said, “No one’s gonna come here and attack you.”

Another evening: a friend told me that the Muslims could start attacking Tamils at any time.  “That’s odd,” I told her, “I know Muslims to say the exact same thing about the Tamils.  They’re as afraid of you as you are of them.”  She had no response to that.

Then she said “Well, most Muslims are fine, it’s just the young, uneducated ones without jobs that get violent.”  (A very astute observation on her part, I might add.)

I replied “Well, there are a lot of young, uneducated and unemployed Tamils around too, you know.  They could just as easily attack the Muslims.”

We both agreed on this fact, and left it at that.  And it’s true.  There are a lot of frustrated, young, unemployed and uneducated men here on all sides, and they are the ones used by Various Parties to do their violent work.  It’s always a danger here.

In such ways fear is used to divide people.

The news finally came in Friday night: Piliyan had won the Chief Ministership.  No word yet on Hizbullah and what he will get, if anything.  Some TMVP supporters set off firecrackers around the neighborhood, but a lot of people just shrugged their shoulders, sighed, and hoped that nothing bad would happen.

On Saturday morning I went to Kattankudy to buy a storage cabinet.  I got a really good deal, saving about 1/3 off the store price, thanks to a connection of Izzadeen’s.  I hired my friend, Nallaratne to go with me in his tuk-tuk and haul the thing back home.  As we were driving through Kattankudy, we both noticed a lot more men on the street than usual, but that the shops were all open.  On the way back out of town, though, there were even more men on the street, shopkeepers were starting to close their shops, and I saw a couple of burning tires in the road.  And I noticed that everyone on the street was looking in one direction, down a side street. I can’t really describe it, but the air just felt… tense.  Nallaratne felt it too, and muttered to me “Politics…”

I had just witnessed, for the first time, the beginnings of a “hartal” which is a sort of one-day wildcat general strike, usually enforced by a militant group.  Hizbullah’s men had decided to flex their muscle, and within half an hour of my departure, every shop, market, restaurant, everything in Kattankudy was shut down.

An hour later Aneesha called me, and advised me not to come to Kattankudy, as the motorcycle shop was closed.  She expressed surprise at the extent of the hartal; normally when there’s a hartel, only the shops on the main road, and perhaps for a block down on the cross streets, were closed.  But this particular hartal was total.

So this is how politics interfered with my motorcycle.  I’m meeting Firthous tomorrow evening to continue negotiations.  Unless something else happens politically, everything will be fine, so not to worry.

But on a larger scale this new political configuration is troubling.  Piliyan doesn’t seem to have much support on the street, yet he’s the guy now in control.  Hizbullah is now seen among the Muslims as either a martyr or a traitor.  Either way, both groups are angry, if for different reasons. And, except for this particular election, both groups are mutually antagonistic. Meanwhile the opposition groups are only slightly more unified; the opposition Muslim and Tamil parties view each other with mistrust.

Oy!  What a mish-mash!

So what are the actual chances of an outbreak of general violence?  Not much, according to various in-the-know and well-connected friends.  The government is very concerned that the world community sees the Province at peace, and so will squash any violence decisively, no matter the origin.  Plus the political haggling is far from over so no one group wants to commit itself to a new policy until the political spoils are handed out.

Have I thoroughly confused you?  I know all this political back-and-forth sounds terribly Byzantine, but here on the ground it’s all very clear cut. And stark.  Have I frightened you?  I hope not.  I still have no sense of immediate threat and believe me when I say I have my ear to the ground and contacts with both – I mean with all four – sides.

What I think will probably happen is that once the dust settles, the political people will grumble and plot, but that in general the peace will hold.  Ultimately, all sides know that an outbreak of violence will only hurt their own interests, and that there is still plenty of room to maneuver.  This is important: when there is still wiggle room there is peace.  It’s only when one group or another feels backed up against the wall that they lash out. Plus the general population is dead tired of violence and thus dead set against anyone who wants to instigate it.  It would be political suicide for any group to stir up trouble, and since right now the ballot has superceded the gun as the power tool of choice, any group causing trouble will be politically dead in the next round of elections.

Yup, more elections.  I don’t know when they will take place, but now there’s talk about parliamentary elections sometime this summer.  Stay tuned folks, the ride ain’t over yet.

xoxoxoxoxo

B.